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Brownlow Medal Model

Plus a heap of tables and graphs

Rex Carruthers

Overview

Ordinal model for 0-3 votes scaled to 6 expected votes per match then simulated 10,000 times.

Model features:

  • Margin
  • Goals
  • Effective Disposals
  • Frees Against
  • Contested Marks
  • Intercept Marks
  • Uncontested Possessions
  • Contested Possessions
  • Spoils
  • Marks Inside 50
  • Clearances
  • ratingPoints
  • dreamTeamPoints
  • Metres Gained
  • Tackles
  • Random Intercept Effect - Derived from Link Mixed Model

Simulation Summary

Round Expected Votes

Vote Range Histogram - Top 10

Line Plot - Top 10

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